Temperatures are forecast for a rise - The Evesham Observer

Temperatures are forecast for a rise

Evesham Editorial 5th Jan, 2022   0

THE Met Office annual global temperature forecast for 2022 suggests this year will continue as one of the Earth’s hottest years.

The average global temperature for 2022 is forecast to be between 0.97°C and 1.21°C (with a central estimate of 1.09 °C) above the average for the pre-industrial period (1850-1900).

It is expected to be the eighth year in succession when temperatures have exceeded 1.0°C above pre-industrial levels.

For the second year in succession, the Met Office global temperature forecast for the coming year, is slightly lower than some previous years since 2015.




This is largely because of the influence of La Niña in the tropical Pacific, where sea surface temperatures are below average.

La Niña has a temporary cooling effect on global average temperature.


Met Office scientist, Dr Nick Dunstone said: “Global temperature has been slightly suppressed during 2021 because of the cooling influence of La Niña in the tropical Pacific.

“With another La Niña now underway, making this a so called ‘double-dip’ La Niña, it is not surprising that we are forecasting another relatively cool year for global temperatures when compared with the run of years since 2015.

“However, it is still likely that 2022 will be above 1.0°C and hence continue the series of warmest years for global temperature since 1850.”

Prof. Adam Scaife, head of long range prediction at the Met Office, added: “These forecasts for the coming year illustrate that the rise of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is now warming the globe at such a rate as to make the El Nino years at the end of the 1990s cooler than the La Niña years two decades later.”

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