Airlines have scrapped around 13,000 flights scheduled for May, raising fears of widespread disruption just weeks before the half-term getaway rush.
Nearly two million seats have been removed from flight schedules in the past fortnight alone, according to aviation data firm Cirium, in a sign of mounting pressure on the industry as fuel supplies tighten.
In addition to outright cancellations, some carriers have quietly downgraded aircraft on certain routes, swapping larger planes for smaller ones in a bid to stretch dwindling jet fuel reserves.
The growing crisis has been linked to a sharp reduction in global oil supply following the conflict involving Iran, with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz cutting off roughly a fifth of the world’s oil flow, a key ingredient in jet fuel production.
Families planning holidays during the late May half-term now face uncertainty, with thousands at risk of last-minute changes or cancellations to their travel plans.
Major international airlines, including British Airways, Lufthansa, Air France and Turkish Airlines, are among those already making cuts to their schedules.
Further disruption could be on the horizon after the Government moved to relax so-called “use it or lose it” rules governing airport slots, allowing airlines to cancel services without risking the loss of valuable take-off and landing rights.
Fuel costs have surged dramatically since the outbreak of the Iran conflict, with jet fuel prices more than doubling, outstripping increases in crude oil. While some airlines have attempted to offset costs by raising ticket prices on popular routes, others have opted to cut less profitable services altogether.
Lufthansa has taken particularly drastic action, slashing 20,000 short-haul flights from its summer timetable.
UK-based airlines have so far been shielded to some extent through fuel hedging agreements, which lock in prices in advance. However, as those contracts begin to expire in the coming months, carriers are expected to feel the full force of rising market rates.
Britain is considered especially vulnerable to fuel shortages due to its reliance on imported jet fuel and limited domestic refining capacity.
Analysts have warned that shortages could emerge as early as this summer, with the UK facing a heightened risk of fuel rationing compared with other European nations.
Emergency reserves are relatively modest, standing at around one million tonnes, against an annual demand of approximately 12 million tonnes.
The mounting crisis has also reignited calls for the UK Government to rethink its opposition to new North Sea oil and gas drilling, amid warnings Britain has become dangerously dependent on overseas energy supplies.
Supporters of expanding North Sea production argue that increasing domestic oil extraction would strengthen Britain’s energy security and reduce reliance on imports during global crises.
While additional North Sea drilling would not immediately solve jet fuel shortages, as aviation fuel still depends on refinery capacity and global supply chains, critics say producing more oil at home would make the UK less exposed to international disruptions and geopolitical shocks.
Opponents argue that North Sea oil is still traded on global markets, meaning prices would continue to be heavily influenced by worldwide events regardless of where the oil is produced.
Ministers have already instructed refineries to increase jet fuel production as part of contingency planning, amid growing concern over supply stability.
At the same time, the total number of airline seats available worldwide has dipped from 132 million to 130 million between mid and late April, reflecting the scale of the cutbacks.
The easing of slot rules is expected to accelerate schedule reductions, particularly on high-frequency routes where passengers can be more easily rebooked.
For many travellers, that could mean inconvenient delays, shortened holidays, or in some cases, cancelled trips altogether.
Travel experts are urging passengers to check their flight status regularly in the days before departure, as airlines continue to adjust schedules at short notice.
Holidaymakers are also being advised to take out comprehensive travel insurance covering cancellations and disruption, particularly for trips booked months in advance.
Passengers should monitor updates directly from airlines, airports and the Foreign Office before travelling, while keeping an eye on email and app notifications for any last-minute timetable changes.
Some industry figures have also suggested that more families could opt for UK staycations this summer if disruption and soaring air fares continue to worsen.
